IT'S A TRAP!
What's the Tactic?
Sports betting companies promote a dream of winning big, often highlighting rare, extraordinary successes. However, they know a stark truth: the vast majority of sports bettors will lose in the long run. Despite this, over 95% of bettors believe they possess the unique insight or "skill" to beat the odds. This confidence is precisely what betting agencies exploit. They heavily promote high-risk, high-reward bets like "multis" (also known as accumulators or parlays) with alluring slogans like "Win Big on This Weekend’s Multis!" – knowing these bets are statistically stacked against the bettor, making them a significant trap.
Why Does It Work?
This tactic effectively leverages several powerful cognitive biases that lead bettors to overestimate their chances of winning:
- Illusion of Control: Many sports bettors genuinely believe they are the "clever one" who "knows their stuff" and will come out on top. They spend hours researching teams, players, and statistics, which fosters an illusion of control over unpredictable outcomes. This bias makes individuals believe their personal skill or knowledge can influence events where chance plays a dominant role.
- Overconfidence Bias: Related to the illusion of control, bettors often display overconfidence bias, believing their predictions are more accurate than they actually are. This leads them to take on riskier bets, like multis, convinced their expertise will prevail against the odds.
- Availability Heuristic and Confirmation Bias: Betting agencies heavily promote rare success stories – "Joe from Brisbane turned $10 into $2,500!" These isolated "big wins" are easily recalled and create a skewed perception of how often such events occur. Bettors then selectively focus on these wins and their own near misses, ignoring the vast number of losses, reinforcing their belief in their eventual success.
- The Appeal of High Payouts: Multis offer the allure of massive payouts for a small stake, which is incredibly enticing. The dream of a life-changing win can override rational assessment of the incredibly low probability of success. The excitement generated by this possibility overshadows the near certainty of losing.
- Misunderstanding of Probability: Many bettors fail to fully grasp the exponential decrease in probability with each additional leg added to a multi-bet. One single incorrect prediction voids the entire accumulator, turning a string of correct predictions into a complete loss. The true statistical odds are overwhelmingly against the bettor for these complex bets.
What's the Impact?
The impact of this fundamental statistical reality, combined with psychological manipulation, is severe and leads to significant harm:
- Guaranteed Long-Term Losses: The core impact is that the vast majority of bettors – 90-95% in the long run – will lose money, as confirmed by comprehensive research (see Further Reading). This isn't bad luck; it's the mathematical reality of how betting markets are designed.
- Chasing Losses: The belief in one's own skill, combined with the promotion of big wins, often leads to chasing losses. Bettors increase their stakes or place more bets in an attempt to recover previous losses, quickly escalating their financial commitment and deepening their debt.
- Increased Risk with Multis: Multis are particularly insidious. While exciting, they are statistically stacked heavily against the bettor. Their promotion as "exciting, fast ways to win big" drives engagement with the riskiest form of betting, where one error means a complete loss.
- Emotional Distress: The constant cycle of believing you can win but consistently losing can lead to significant emotional distress, frustration, and a compulsive drive to prove oneself against the "system."
- Normalisation of Gambling Harm: By promoting the idea that "winning big" is achievable through skill, betting companies normalise a behaviour that is fundamentally designed for long-term profit at the customer's expense, obscuring the high rates of loss and potential for harm.
What to Watch For
Be critical of your own perceptions and the messages from betting companies:
- Your Own "Expert" Beliefs: If you constantly feel you "know more" than the bookmakers or other bettors, this might be your overconfidence bias at play.
- Promotion of Multi-Bets/Accumulators: Be wary of prominent promotions for bets that offer huge payouts for small stakes, as these are inherently designed for you to lose.
- Focus on Big Wins: Betting agencies will always highlight the rare success stories. Ask yourself how many thousands of losses happened for that one big win to occur.
- Disregard for Statistical Reality: Understand that the odds are fundamentally set to ensure the house profits in the long run, regardless of your "skill."
Remember, these tactics are sophisticated, and they are designed by experts to influence your behaviour.
You’re not alone, and it’s not on you. These tactics are designed to keep you betting, but you can take back control. Head to beingplayed.info or call 0800 664 262 for free, confidential support.
Further Reading:
- Auer, M., & Griffiths, M. D. (2017). 99% of Gamblers Lose in the Long Run: An Analysis of Actual Online Gambling Data. Collabra: Psychology, 3(1), 137306.
